Market Predictor

Raw Data

{
  "symbol": "AAPL",
  "company_name": "Apple Inc.",
  "sector": "Technology",
  "industry": "Consumer Electronics",
  "current_price": 301.5400085449219,
  "prediction_price": 307.4528029352137,
  "probability": 0.4,
  "probability_score": 0.4,
  "signal": "NEUTRAL",
  "direction": "neutral",
  "confidence": "LOW",
  "confidence_score": 32.4,
  "expected_move_pct": 0.04,
  "selected_model": "ensemble",
  "selection_source": "ensemble_regime",
  "market_regime": "bull_low_vol",
  "narrative": "Trained-model forecast selected: ENSEMBLE. Directional view: neutral. Expected 5-day move: 0.04%. Model confidence: 32.4%.",
  "source_type": "trained_ml",
  "timestamp": "2026-06-09T03:50:10.542784",
  "ok": true,
  "technical_indicators": {
    "rsi": 54.0,
    "macd": "bearish",
    "bollinger_position": 0.38,
    "atr": 6.48,
    "volume_ratio": 1.58,
    "volatility": 19.1
  },
  "moving_averages": {
    "sma_20": 304.66,
    "sma_50": 282.06,
    "sma_200": 301.54,
    "price_vs_sma20": -1.0,
    "price_vs_sma50": 6.9
  },
  "momentum": {
    "1d": -1.89,
    "5d": -1.49,
    "20d": 2.99
  },
  "support_resistance": {
    "support": 292.68,
    "resistance": 315.2,
    "distance_to_support": 3.0,
    "distance_to_resistance": 4.5
  },
  "data_quality": {
    "data_points": 124,
    "volatility_regime": "LOW"
  },
  "ml_payload": {
    "symbol": "AAPL",
    "current_price": 307.3399963378906,
    "prediction": 307.4528029352137,
    "model_type": "rf",
    "source_type": "ensemble_regime",
    "target_price": 307.4528029352137,
    "expected_move_pct": 0.03670417084246071,
    "prob_up": 0.5045878054581845,
    "horizon": "5d",
    "selected_model": "ensemble",
    "effective_method": "ensemble",
    "market_regime": "bull_low_vol",
    "directional_accuracy": 66.6755,
    "calibration_score": 0.666755,
    "avg_excess_return_spy": -0.560016130423,
    "observations": 5085,
    "model_count": 3,
    "component_models": [
      {
        "model_name": "rf",
        "weight": 47.8518,
        "selection_score": 47.8518,
        "directional_accuracy": 68.7316,
        "avg_excess_return_spy": -0.5600161304229195,
        "observations": 1695,
        "selection_scope": "regime"
      },
      {
        "model_name": "lightgbm",
        "weight": 45.9625,
        "selection_score": 45.9625,
        "directional_accuracy": 65.6637,
        "avg_excess_return_spy": -0.5600161304229195,
        "observations": 1695,
        "selection_scope": "regime"
      },
      {
        "model_name": "xgb",
        "weight": 45.9242,
        "selection_score": 45.9242,
        "directional_accuracy": 65.5457,
        "avg_excess_return_spy": -0.5600161304229195,
        "observations": 1695,
        "selection_scope": "regime"
      }
    ],
    "individual_predictions": {
      "rf": 307.483846,
      "lightgbm": 307.372129,
      "xgb": 307.501199
    },
    "individual_expected_moves": {
      "rf": 0.046805,
      "lightgbm": 0.010455,
      "xgb": 0.052451
    },
    "ensemble_method": "weighted_regime_switch",
    "score": 46.5969,
    "selection_source": "ensemble_regime",
    "ml_signal": {
      "symbol": "AAPL",
      "method": "ensemble",
      "direction": "neutral",
      "score": 0.37,
      "confidence": 32.4,
      "expected_move_pct": 0.04,
      "current_price": 307.34,
      "target_price": 307.45,
      "horizon": "5d",
      "summary": "REGIME ENSEMBLE is neutral on AAPL with an expected move of 0.04% over the 5d. Active regime: bull_low_vol.",
      "model_count": 3,
      "selected_model": "ensemble",
      "directional_accuracy": 66.6755,
      "avg_excess_return_spy": -0.560016130423,
      "observations": 5085,
      "market_regime": "bull_low_vol",
      "calibration_score": 0.666755,
      "prob_up": 0.5045878054581845,
      "selection_source": "ensemble_regime",
      "source_type": "ensemble_regime",
      "component_models": [
        {
          "model_name": "rf",
          "weight": 47.8518,
          "selection_score": 47.8518,
          "directional_accuracy": 68.7316,
          "avg_excess_return_spy": -0.5600161304229195,
          "observations": 1695,
          "selection_scope": "regime"
        },
        {
          "model_name": "lightgbm",
          "weight": 45.9625,
          "selection_score": 45.9625,
          "directional_accuracy": 65.6637,
          "avg_excess_return_spy": -0.5600161304229195,
          "observations": 1695,
          "selection_scope": "regime"
        },
        {
          "model_name": "xgb",
          "weight": 45.9242,
          "selection_score": 45.9242,
          "directional_accuracy": 65.5457,
          "avg_excess_return_spy": -0.5600161304229195,
          "observations": 1695,
          "selection_scope": "regime"
        }
      ],
      "individual_predictions": {
        "rf": 307.483846,
        "lightgbm": 307.372129,
        "xgb": 307.501199
      },
      "ensemble_method": "weighted_regime_switch"
    },
    "direction": "neutral",
    "confidence": 32.4
  },
  "ml_signal": {
    "symbol": "AAPL",
    "method": "ensemble",
    "direction": "neutral",
    "score": 0.37,
    "confidence": 32.4,
    "expected_move_pct": 0.04,
    "current_price": 307.34,
    "target_price": 307.45,
    "horizon": "5d",
    "summary": "REGIME ENSEMBLE is neutral on AAPL with an expected move of 0.04% over the 5d. Active regime: bull_low_vol.",
    "model_count": 3,
    "selected_model": "ensemble",
    "directional_accuracy": 66.6755,
    "avg_excess_return_spy": -0.560016130423,
    "observations": 5085,
    "market_regime": "bull_low_vol",
    "calibration_score": 0.666755,
    "prob_up": 0.5045878054581845,
    "selection_source": "ensemble_regime",
    "source_type": "ensemble_regime",
    "component_models": [
      {
        "model_name": "rf",
        "weight": 47.8518,
        "selection_score": 47.8518,
        "directional_accuracy": 68.7316,
        "avg_excess_return_spy": -0.5600161304229195,
        "observations": 1695,
        "selection_scope": "regime"
      },
      {
        "model_name": "lightgbm",
        "weight": 45.9625,
        "selection_score": 45.9625,
        "directional_accuracy": 65.6637,
        "avg_excess_return_spy": -0.5600161304229195,
        "observations": 1695,
        "selection_scope": "regime"
      },
      {
        "model_name": "xgb",
        "weight": 45.9242,
        "selection_score": 45.9242,
        "directional_accuracy": 65.5457,
        "avg_excess_return_spy": -0.5600161304229195,
        "observations": 1695,
        "selection_scope": "regime"
      }
    ],
    "individual_predictions": {
      "rf": 307.483846,
      "lightgbm": 307.372129,
      "xgb": 307.501199
    },
    "ensemble_method": "weighted_regime_switch"
  }
}